Israel’s Hostages Come Home, But At What Price?

By Gregg Roman

Today’s celebration masks tomorrow’s tragedy as Hamas emerges stronger from this deal. (Adobe Stock)

To read this article at Middle East Forum Online, click here.

Every person of conscience celebrates President Trump’s announcement. After more than two years of agony, Israeli families will finally embrace their loved ones. Children will see their fathers, parents will hold their children, and spouses will be reunited. This is a moment of pure joy that resonates across the free world. Those who have prayed for this day, demanded this day, now see it arrive.

To the families who have camped outside the Prime Minister’s residence, who have marched every Saturday night, who have lived in suspended animation since October 7—their nightmare is ending. Their strength has moved mountains. The entire Israeli nation stands with them as they prepare to welcome their loved ones home. No one, absolutely no one, questions the imperative of bringing them back.

And yet, even as the world celebrates, we must ask: at what price? And more critically: what comes next?

The arithmetic of this exchange should give everyone pause. Israel will release over 1,700 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences for the most heinous acts of terrorism. These aren’t stone-throwers or protesters. These are the architects of the Park Hotel Passover massacre, the planners of the Sbarro pizzeria bombing, the orchestrators of attacks that turned school buses into crime scenes. Each has blood on their hands and expertise in their heads.

Hamas is trading 48 hostages—20 living and 28 dead—for 1,700 experienced operatives—a massive force multiplication that transforms tactical defeat into strategic victory. Every released prisoner returns to Gaza or the West Bank as a hero, a symbol of resistance, armed with years of additional training and burning with renewed purpose.

History provides a grim preview of what comes next. Yahya Sinwar, the architect of October 7, spent 22 years in Israeli prison studying Hebrew, analyzing Israeli society, planning his revenge. Released in the 2011 Shalit deal among 1,026 other prisoners, he used his freedom to orchestrate the deadliest day in Israel’s history. Today, Israel is releasing another generation of potential Sinwars.

The framework speaks optimistically of Hamas agreeing to disarm, to leave Gaza, to accept peaceful coexistence. But Hamas has committed to none of this. They’ve agreed only to Phase 1—the hostage exchange that strengthens their position. Points 2-20 of Trump’s plan remain aspirational, contingent on Hamas’s voluntary compliance with demands no genocidal movement has ever accepted without military defeat.

Even more troubling is who’s guaranteeing this arrangement. Turkey openly hosts Hamas leadership in Istanbul, providing sanctuary for terror planning. Qatar has funneled billions to Hamas over years, maintaining the terror infrastructure under humanitarian cover. These aren’t neutral peace brokers—they’re Hamas’s lifelines, ensuring the organization survives this war intact.

Their presence reveals the deal’s true consequences: not Hamas’s elimination, but its preservation. Turkey wants Hamas alive as leverage in regional politics. Qatar’s billions won’t stop; they’ll simply be rebranded as “reconstruction aid” while rebuilding the same tunnel networks Israel just destroyed. In addition, they have demanded the U.S. will provide security guarantees that prevent Israel from going back into Gaza to finish the job.

The proposed International Stabilization Force promises to succeed where every previous mission has failed. But when has any international force actually confronted Hamas? The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon watches Hezbollah arm itself in Lebanon. United Nations forces in Syria observe while jihadi forces build bases. These forces inevitably become passive observers, documenting violations while terror groups rearm under their watch.

History teaches that ideological movements committed to genocide don’t negotiate themselves out of existence. The Allies didn’t offer Nazi Germany a twenty-point peace plan hoping the SS would voluntarily disarm. They demanded unconditional surrender, destroyed Nazi military capability, and rebuilt from scratch. Hamas, whose charter calls for Israel’s annihilation and whose leaders promise to repeat October 7 “again and again,” requires the same treatment.

So yes, let the world celebrate these hostages’ return. Let Israel embrace them, heal with them, and honor their survival. But no one should mistake this tactical success for strategic victory. Israel is purchasing today’s relief with tomorrow’s security, saving current hostages while creating conditions for future ones.

The families waiting at border crossings deserve their reunions. But other families—not yet formed, children not yet born—deserve more than becoming the next generation’s hostages. They deserve the permanent peace that comes only through Hamas’s complete defeat.

Israel’s hostages are coming home, and for that the world rejoices. But until Hamas is eliminated as a military and political force, we are merely pausing between tragedies. The question isn’t whether Israel should bring its people home—of course it must. The question is: will the international community learn from history, or condemn Israel to repeat it?

Today brings celebration. Tomorrow must bring the resolve to finish what October 7 started—not with negotiations, but with victory. Anything less guarantees that today’s joy will become tomorrow’s grief.

Gregg Roman is the executive director of the Middle East Forum, previously directing the Community Relations Council of the Jewish Federation of Greater Pittsburgh. In 2014, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency named him one of the “ten most inspiring global Jewish leaders,” and he previously served as the political advisor to the deputy foreign minister of Israel and worked for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. A frequent speaker on Middle East affairs, Mr. Roman appears on international news channels such as Fox News, i24NEWS, Al-Jazeera, BBC World News, and Israel’s Channels 12 and 13. He studied national security and political communications at American University and the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, and has contributed to The Hill, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, the Miami Herald, and the Jerusalem Post.

The Middle East Forum, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government.